Guatemala Green Cardamom Production and Consumption 2016 – 2017

BIRD’S EYE VIEW FOR GREEN CARDAMOM GUATEMALA / INDIA 2016 – 2017

GUATEMALA GREEN CARDAMOM PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 2016 -2017

Guatemala Cardamom Crop Production and Exports of Year 2015 – 2016
36,000 – 38,000 Metric Tons for Year 2015 – 2016
Exports: Total 34,000 Tons till October-2016
Carry Forward from Crop Year 2014 – 2015: 4,000 – 6,000 Tons
Total Availability of Year 2015 – 2016: 40,000 – 42,000 Tons

GUATEMALA CARDAMOM CROP PRODUCTION 2016 – 2017
30,000 – 32,000 Metric Tons for Year 2016 – 2017
Carry Forward from Crop Year 2015 – 2016: 4,000 – 6,000 Tons
Total Availability for Year 2016 – 2017: 34,000 – 36,000 Tons

 Situation in October 2016
A) VAT taxation issues in Guatemala.

(Usually observed every year during the start of cardamom crop season)

B) Trucking transportation strikes observed by local transporters till end October.

C) Local middle men and traders entered the market in Guatemala to speculate.

D) Creating havoc and panic at destination markets while mentioning no offers.

E) Rumors were created for the crop to be around 20,000 – 22,000 Tons.

Situation in November 2016
A) offers started coming in after creating extreme panic / hype and anxiety in the consuming countries.

(Usually observed every year during the start of season since last 5 years)

B) Price increment of upto 60% to 120% for various Grades.

C) Cardamom Exporters sold all their carry forward stocks from last year at higher prices purchased earlier during June / July / August 2016.

D) All major middle men traders were trapped in November 2016 while paying higher prices.

E) Major consuming countries reluctant to buy such as Saudi Arabia and Middle East due to economic recession and defaults of several traders in Dubai and as they are also now very much familiar with Guatemala cardamom exporters trick and devilish tactics being played since last 5 years.

F) Demonetization announced in India on 8th November 2016. Indian traders stuck up due to cash flows, all major trading centers in Mumbai / Delhi / Kerala facing extreme transactional issues.

G) Bangladesh / Nepal / Bhutan facing several difficulties due to aftermath of De-Monetization hence affecting their recovery of old receivable bills for the goods smuggled to India through their borers.

Cardamom Exporters bought at the bottom prices during end of last season in June / July / August 2016. Which was sold earlier with extremely high incentives while creating hype and most of all while also decreasing and compromising the quality parameters? Hence decreasing the qualities and selling their famous brands without maintaining any quality standards.

Jumbo Pale Green traded earlier in August at the levels of usd8.00 – 8.50 per kg sold in October 2016 at the levels of usd13.00 – 14.00 per kg with lowest quality parameters.

Large Pale Green traded earlier in August at the levels of usd6.00 – 6.50 per kg sold in October 2016 at the levels of usd11.00 – 13.00 per kg with lowest quality parameters.

Medium Pale Green traded earlier in August at the levels of usd5.00 – 5.50 per kg sold in October 2016 at the levels of usd9.50 – 10.50 per kg with lowest quality parameters.

Thripped Quality traded earlier in August at the levels of usd4.00 – 5.00 per kg sold in October 2016 at the levels of usd9.00 – 10.00 per kg with lowest quality parameters.

Now in November 2016 offers were withheld till 7th November 2016, suddenly offers started to came in from 11th November 2016 from origin and other international trading hubs such as Dubai / Singapore / Netherlands / London.

During end of November 2016 bulk quantities are being offered directly from Largest Cardamom Exporter to Small Size Importers. Hence finding no buyers as their plans have been disrupted due to several reasons:

INDIA CARDAMOM CROP PRODUCTION / EXPORTS / PLANTATION SURVEY FOR YEAR 2015 – 2016 – 2017

We completed an extensive survey of plantations over all the ‘Cardamom Growing Zones’ in the last fortnight. It was followed by detailed discussion with experts who have conducted similar surveys this year.

The gist of the survey was that the crop is lower than last year to the extent of 25%-30%. The plants that have been particularly affected due to the high temperatures are the ones with less shading. The Cardamom growing belt has also reported lower rainfall than the corresponding period last year by 30%. Having said that, it has to be mentioned, last year we had a record production of nearly 28,000 Tons. When comparisons are made with that year, the production loss does look significant. However, this year’s production estimates are not that unfavorable compared to the production in the year before i.e. the 2014 – 2015 seasons. We expect the actual production to be in the range of 20,000 to 21,000 Tons.

India had huge carry forward stocks from the year 2015 – 2016 that covered our requirements right till the month of September and despite the delay in rainfall, there wasn’t any scarcity of crop. Stockists, who had covered stocks in the end season of last year, released their stocks at good margins as prices scaled up in the beginning of the season. Though some areas reported a crop damage of 50% – 60% over last year, the total area under cultivation itself has increased significantly and that is reflected in the production coming from new areas.

On the demand side, Exports continued to remain sluggish, faced with recessionary signals in the key markets of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. We expect that Exports may struggle to touch 4,000 Tons this year as compared to nearly 5,800 Tons Exported in the last year. The domestic demand from the retail segment also shrinks rapidly with increase in prices. The major festival season is now over and retailers have also cooled down seeing high prices. Last year’s crop covered us for nearly three months of this year and so the over-all demand on the current crop will not be as much now. Scarcity, if any, will be felt only in April 2017.

Hence we feel that the rapid increase of prices over the last fortnight or so by nearly $3 per kilo is speculative and not sustainable as it is neither backed by domestic or export demand.

We advise customers to cover only their immediate and urgent requirements.

Please kindly be aware of Guatemala Cardamom Exporters as they are playing since last 5 years and all the major Importers and Traders are losing money since last 5 years.

Please Be Ware of Cardamom Exporter Tactics. DANGER!!!

The Author of this Report Mr. James Mathew
Email us for daily updates: jamesmathewuk45@gmail.com